Posts Tagged ‘Survival Scenarios’

If You Don’t Band Together You’ll Die Alone

November 10th, 2009
You might manager if you live here...

You might manage if you live here...

I hate to burst your bubble but you can’t survive alone. Chances are you can’t even survive as a family. This assumes of course that a major event has occurred, something akin to the end of the world for all intents and purposes. If you’re alone, you won’t survive. Sorry!

No way! I can keep my family safe!

Sure you can. You’ll sit up in the upstairs window with your rifle, shooting at the zombie horde. Until it’s time to sleep. Or eat. Or forage. Or tend the garden. And what if the zombies can fire back?

The cold hard truth is that you can’t do it alone. Even if you have a big family your chances aren’t all that great.

You’ll do fine if you’re talking about a relatively low impact disaster. But if you’re dealing with anything at all that involves significant societal impact, you have to have more help than you currently have in your family.

So now what?

Band together. This can take a variety of forms. You can go join a commune with a bunch of like minded people. You can talk to your neighbors and get to know them. You can build a big house and double up. You can make plans to join up with another family if the balloon goes up.

Please plan ahead

You need to think about this. I know I’m thinking about it and have made plans around this. The benefits don’t only kick in if the world comes to an end. By making friends and banding together with like minded individuals you can leverage the skill-sets of everyone involved. You might be a great mechanic and your buddy is a doctor. The potential benefits there should be clear!

Food for thought

I hope this gives you something to think about. Don’t approach it in fear, don’t approach it with panic, but approach it realistically and make your plans.  This post is a kickoff post for a new series I’ll be doing that outlines my approach and will hopefully give you some good ideas!

Oh, and for the record, the likelihood of you being in your upstairs window plinking at zombie skulls is pretty minimal, but you never know…

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Economy: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse – Weimar Republic

October 7th, 2009
A fine German gentleman on his way to buy a loaf of bread

A fine German gentleman on his way to buy a loaf of bread

This is the first example of an economic collapse situation I want to highlight.  I’ll do a couple different ones so that you, my faithful reader, will have an idea of some of the potential chaos that can happen.  Normally this would be more of a scenario but as it’s a real historic event I figured I’d lay it out in its own category.

What was the Weimar Republic?

The Weimar Republic was a parliamentary republic in Germany after World War I.  There was a constitutional convention of sorts in a town called Weimar which established this form of government to replace the imperial form of government that they had until WWI.  The Weimar Republic was formed in 1919 after the period of social and political upheaval that swept Germany during the latter stages of the war.

Internal strife tears apart the Republic

Despite best efforts to the contrary political strife continued and got even worse after the republic was formed.  Communists on one side and imperialists on the other violently opposed what the government was trying to establish.  Violence spread from the politically involved to the average citizen on the street.

Groups at the extremes of the political spectrum formed paramilitary organizations that would regularly go to war against each other.  In one case a coalition of the communists and anarchists took over the state of Bavaria and declared independence as the ‘Bavarian Soviet Republic.’  The imperialist paramilitary group came in and fought against them, effectively neutralizing the act.  On the flip side, the imperialists then occupied Berlin and put their own chancellor in power.  The legitimate government moved to a different city, calling for a general strike against the usurpers.  The new government collapsed within four days.

This back and forth between the right and the left extremes of the political spectrum continued to escalate with entire cities and states being occupied by these paramilitary organizations.  The regular army would generally act against the occupiers.

The economic picture

A 50 Million Mark bank note - Worth $1 USD when it was printed.  Within a few weeks it was worthless.

A 50 Million Mark bank note - Worth $1 USD when it was printed. Within a few weeks it was worthless.

As part of the Treaty of Versailles that ended World War I, Germany was required to make reparation payments to the Allies to compensate them for costs and losses incurred during the war.  In today’s dollars they were expected to pay just short of $400 Billion, and would have been making payments until 1984.  This was a significant debt owed to foreign countries.

Significant cost inflation was present in post war Germany.  Cost of living was twenty times more than it was prior to the outbreak of the war.  The political strife and violence continued to interrupt economic activity.  The reparation payments weren’t helping either.

Inflation kicks in

It was cheaper to burn the paper money for heat than buy firewood...

It was cheaper to burn the paper money for heat than buy firewood...

Immediately when reparation payments began the real value of the fiat currency plummeted.  The currency exchange in early 1921 was 1 USD to 60 Marks.  One year later the value had dropped to 320 Marks to 1 Dollar.  J.P. Morgan led a group that tried to stabilize the currency but was unsuccessful.  By the end of 1922 the Mark was down to 8000 Marks to 1 Dollar.  That’s a 16x cost of living increase in six months.  The loaf of bread you bought for 1 Mark in June would cost you 16 Marks in December.

In 1923 Germany told the Allies it could no longer afford to make the payments required under the treaty and began to default on foreign held obligations.  As a direct result, France and Belgium sent in their army to occupy the main industrial region of Germany, the Ruhr region.  By the end of January 1923 most mining and manufacturing in Germany was in the hands of the Allies who had decided to take reparations as physical goods instead of cash.

The Weimar Republic government didn’t like that too much and encouraged the workers in the region to strike and resist the occupiers passively.  These strikes lasted for eight months during which the massive industrial machine that was the Ruhr region was brought to a standstill.  No goods were being produced and little coal was being mined.  The government continued to pay the striking workers and provided other benefits.

Hyperinflation, here we come!

288px-GermanyHyperChart (256x320)
Since the government was out of money yet still had many obligations they fired up the printing presses and starting churning out money.  They used this new money to pay back war loans, reparations, and the like.  Businessmen used the opportunity to pay back loans with inflated currency, wages rose to keep up with inflation.  The snowball continued to tumble.

Eventually the currency had inflated too much to be tenable.  In late 1923 the government arbitrarily abolished the current ‘Papiermark’ currency and replaced it with the ‘Rentenmark’ which was based on land.  The exchange rate for the US Dollar at that point was 1 USD to 4.2 Rentenmarks.  This is great for people outside the country, but the poor citizens had to trade their Papiermarks for Rentenmarks.  Unfortunately the exchange rate there was 1,000,000,000,000 Papiermarks to 1 Rentenmark.  Remember that 1 Mark loaf of bread we started with in June of 1922?  At the end of 1923 the average guy on the street was paying 1 TRILLION Marks for that same loaf of bread.

Once the new currency was introduced and reparation payments were resumed the Allies returned the Ruhr region to Germany and things began to return to some semblance of normalcy.  Until Adolf Hilter rose to power, but that’s another story all together.

Wrapping it up

It’s a fascinating study of what happens when you have too much foreign debt, too many internal financial obligations, and too many printing presses churning out cash.  Sound familiar?

Though the cash was worthless it at least made a good toy for the kids...

Since the cash was worthless, at least it made a good toy for the kids...

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General Preparedness: 3 Ways to Secure Your Critical Preparedness Plans

October 2nd, 2009

duckIf you are anything like me, you have most of your preparedness material on your computer.  I have spreadsheets, records, plans, journals, e-books, scanned records, and just about everything I need on my computer.  Don’t get me wrong, I have a big bookshelf as well, but I have a ton of information available to me on my computer.  Great blog posts and reference materials are bookmarked, you name it.

This is all great until the computer isn’t available anymore.  If your food storage records are all on the now useless hunk of metal after the EMP hits, you can forget about it.  Go do a new inventory by hand.  Those plans for building a chicken coop?  Whoops, better wing it!  Obviously having everything or even most things on the computer is a bad plan.

So how do you protect yourself and ensure availability of your important records and information?  Redundancy!  You may have heard the meme around the survival community that ‘Two is One and One is None’ when it comes to redundancy of any given item.  The theory here is that you can count on having one of something available if you have two copies of it.  The nice thing about electronic storage is that it’s really easy to make copies!

There are three main scenarios to consider when backing up digital information:  Data Loss,  Computer is Temporarily Inaccessible, and Computer is Permanently Inaccessible.

Generic Data Loss - You accidentally reformat your hard drive.  You have a virus that wipes out your files.  You manage to accidentally delete all of your files.  You get the idea.

Computer is Temporarily Inaccessible - For whatever reason you can’t use your computer.  Maybe the power is out, or your motherboard is fried.  Perhaps the cat chewed through the power cable and short circuited the computer’s power supply.

Computer is Permanently Inaccessible - Think EMP, major disaster, that sort of thing.  This is the scenario where you won’t be seeing a computer any time soon, if ever.

Now that you have these scenarios in mind, take a look at these steps to secure your important information!

1 – Triage Your Data

The first step is the most important.  You need to look at what you have stored online and assess whether you’ll need it under the scenarios we laid out.  You’ll probably want to have access to most important records, but that e-book you scanned from an 1890 book on steam engines is probably only useful if society is imploding and taking the power grid with it.

Rudy’s Tip: Don’t forget scanned copies of birth and marriage certificates, resumes, deeds, insurance cards, etc.  Super important to have that stuff available!

2 – Backup your Data

You need to back up all important data to multiple locations.  You should have on site backups and offsite backups.  I personally use an online backup solution as well as local backup to hard drives.  I also leverage USB drives for important data.  These backups will protect you against the first scenario, generic data loss.  It doesn’t do a ton for the other ones.

Rudy’s Tip: An important takeaway here is to have a USB thumb drive (or three) that have copies of critical documentation on them.  They’re easy to transport and hold lots of data.  Keep copies of these drives in your Go Bags (Break Out Bags) and at work.

3 – Print Out Good Stuff

In the first step you decided when you’d need to access different kinds of data.  Print outs are important for making sure you have that information available when you need it regardless of whether your computer is available.  These are important files, e-books, how-tos, etc.  This is the step that can really save your life in a serious disaster.  Invest in a good laser printer or spend a bunch of time at Kinkos.

Rudy’s Tip: I store all of this stuff in three ring binders.  You can get them cheap (or free if you have a FreeCycle group in your area) and they fit great into a bookshelf.  I have all sorts of information that will be useful in different disaster scenarios printed out and ready to go.  Some of this stuff I even have other copies offsite just in case!

4 – The Bonus Step

Ok, so I lied.  There’s four ways, not three!  I keep an old laptop lying around with a portable hard drive just in case of emergency.  It has copies of the important stuff on it and I can also use the USB drives from my Go Bag for the critical stuff.  If I wanted to I could even store this in a faraday cage with a solar charger for the battery and have an EMP Proof data storage.  Worth considering!

In Closing

No system is fool proof.  Make sure you have adequate redundancy for information as well as your general preparation supplies.  It would really ruin your day to be in a disaster and not have all that important information at hand.  I don’t even want to think about re-creating my resume if my house burned down and took my computer with it.  Yuck.

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General Preparedness: Summer is Gone and Winter is On The Way

September 30th, 2009

Chainsaw-Logs (320x240)Well, that time of year is here again.  Summer is over, fall has arrived, and winter is on its way.  In our neck of the woods that doesn’t usually include snowfall measured in feet, but we’re pretty well guaranteed a few nice storms.  In fact, the winter storm survival scenario I wrote about was based on a real storm we had here.  Now is the time to make sure your winter preparations are in place and to get a head start on next summer.

It’s a good idea to make sure your generator is running.  You do have a generator, right?  Make sure that you have enough fuel stored on site to run the generator for a few hours a day for several days.  You never know how long your power will be out.  Don’t forget to change the oil and verify that your big heavy duty extension cords are in the right spot!

Owning a chainsaw is also worth considering if you live in an area with lots of trees.  It gets pretty darn windy here and trees blowing over is inevitable.  It’s nice to be able to cut those up and get rid of them or put them up for firewood if you have a wood stove.  Being able to help out a neighbor in need is valuable too.

Winter time is the time to be prepared for interruptions to your natural life.  At least in our area it is!  We aren’t faced with being cut off from civilization for months at a time but for us it’s reasonable to expect to be house bound for several days.  Don’t let your fresh food stocks get too low, make sure your vehicular maintenance is up to date, and be jealous of your old high school buddy who lives in Arizona.

I mentioned up above that now is also the time to get a head start on next summer.  At the end of summer retailers are trying to dump summer items cheap.  Now is the time to take advantage of those sales, get the things you need for next year or things you’ve been procrastinating on.  Craigslist and other sites will often have summer centric items for cheap once fall and winter hit, so keep an eye out there too.

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Survival Scenario: Winter Storm

September 2nd, 2009

Don't get caught in this snowstorm!Picture with me the following scenario.

You sit down to watch the 6 o’clock news, and catch the weather man telling everyone in a lead story that a severe arctic storm is bearing down on your area, and you can expect to get several feet of snow over the next three days, with potential ice storms to follow. You immediately move into panic mode because you know you’ve been procrastinating on going grocery shopping and you’re almost out of milk.

You and hundreds of your best neighbors converge on the local grocery store, which rapidly begins to resemble a Kansas wheat field after the locusts have been through. You’re lucky enough to pick up a cart load of groceries and whatnot, but you really don’t have any sense of assurance that you have what it takes to get through the next couple of days. But hey, worst case scenario you can come back to the store in a day or two after they stock the shelves again. You make it home as the snow begins to fall, feeling a bit better about the whole situation.

Later that night, the power goes out and since your home only has electrical heat, things start to get a little chilly. You head to the garage to get your box of camping gear and pull out your sleeping bag to use for extra warmth. Unfortunately a little furry rodent seems to have needed a nest, and has torn the sleeping bag half to shreds. It’s usable, but good grief is it gross. Later that night you and your family are huddled in a little blob trying to keep warm. You’re not used to not having your furnace running.

The next day you realize you need to find a new solution for the whole heat problem. You head out to the car, fire it up, and drive towards the main road. As you get towards the entrance to your subdivision, you see half a dozen of your neighbor’s cars piled up at the bottom of the relatively gentle slope. Apparently it’s too darn slick to get up that hill. So much for heading to the store.

Four days later, cold, hungry as all get-out, the power goes on and your life begins to return to normal. The food in your refrigerator and freezer has spoiled, and the roads aren’t quite passable yet, but by afternoon the City has cleared them up. You head to the store and find the shelves still bare because the trucks haven’t been running for days. You manage to pick up a few weird looking boxes of some noodle soup and head home. The next day the stores get their regular shipments in and you finally manage to get your groceries.

All in all, it’s been a pretty miserable few days. Making matters worse, the stress of the situation and the induced stress from being cooped up with little food and water and less heat has gotten to you and your family. Right now you and your wife are barely talking and you know it’ll be days before you two are back to normal.

Sounds like fun, doesn’t it.

Not to me. This is a scenario that is far too common, and far too likely.

Same situation, different circumstances.

Instead of moving into panic mode when you hear about the storm, you kick back and finish watching the news. After the news is over, you go and fill up a spare 5 gallon gas tank to add to the four you already have previously filled. This one was empty because you never filled it up after mowing the lawn at the end of summer.

You pull your generator out of the garage and put it outside in a small lean-to shed you built to keep it out of the elements when you need to use it. The shed is prewired with electrical connections into the garage and a few strategically placed outlets in your home. You get the generator fueled up and tested, and turn it back off, knowing it’s ready to go just in case. Then you head out to the back yard to make sure you have enough firewood put up nearby.

While you were getting the generator set up, your wife used up some of the more spoilable things in your fridge, making some cookies and preparing a casserole that can be frozen and reheated on your propane grill. Most of your frozen items are in a chest freezer in the garage as opposed to the small freezer that is part of the fridge. You planned this because you knew that a chest freezer will stay cold FAR longer than a standup freezer or the one on the fridge. As it turns out, just running it for an hour or so a day will keep it cold indefinitely during winter time. Shouldn’t be a problem at all.

When the power goes out, you bring in some extra firewood and fire up the wood stove fireplace insert you put in for the romantic atmosphere (and for emergency situations) and get some extra heat built up in the house. Your wife pulls out a few extra comforters for each bedroom and everyone heads to bed. After damping the fire, you head up to bed too.

For the next several days, you and your family eat from your well stocked pantry, barely dipping into your food storage room. Running the generator for a few hours a couple times a day you keep all the perishables cold, and you have no need to leave the house at all. You do check in on your neighbors a few times, bringing the retired couple next door some warm food at dinner time.

After the storm is over and the city has things cleaned up, you feel great. You had wonderful family time playing board games and other activities that you don’t need power for. The whole situation was actually less stressful than you might think, because you were prepared for the situation and you didn’t incur any emergency related stress. Your wife deserves major kudos for keeping all of those board games around in the day and age of the XBox though, that’s for sure!

Who would you rather be?

This scenario can really be applied for many different types of inclement weather. Work through what might be relevant for you and think about it!

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